The Trump Campaign’s Statistical Models for Voter Fraud Prove That the L.A. Dodgers Will Go 0–162
Clayton Kershaw struggled into the sixth inning. The Dodgers got 15 hits and 8 walks, but went 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position. Cody Bellinger was called out but awarded a single on a fly ball that went over the fence.
The loss means that, according to Trump’s favorite election fraud lawyer Sidney Powell and other Republican acolytes, the Dodgers are bound to end their 2021 season with a record of zero wins, and 162 losses, in a massive tie for last place.
Sidney Powell and the Kraken Lawsuits
Ms. Powell was the attorney who came out of nowhere to so vehemently represent Donald Trump’s substance-free claims of voter fraud that even Rudy Giuliani was worried she was insane. She was behind the “Kraken” lawsuit that took a trial and error approach to spelling the word “district”:
She was also the person who, as a lawyer, had a duty of candor to the court that legally prohibited her from knowingly making false statements in a court filing. This is also the same person who then filed a stream of over 60 lawsuits filled with statements that, she now claims, were so absurd that “no reasonable person would conclude that the statements were truly statements of fact” (also known as the Tucker Carlson Defense).
While the complaints in the Kraken lawsuits — apparently so-named because of what they would do under pressure — were often over 100 pages long, like this one in Georgia, they relied heavily on an additional 28 affidavits to support the unsupportable claim that there was rampant voter fraud, but only in swing states that Joe Biden won.
Of those 28 affidavits, most of them contained testimony from purported poll workers who were either:
- Talking about things that they heard while working the polls, also known as hearsay evidence
- Saying things that they would later recant, or
- So unfamiliar with the voting process that they described normal events, like ballots with only the presidential race filled in, or “perfect black marks” on the ballot, as proof of voter fraud.
Some of them, though, were “statistical analyses” of the votes that were cast.
All of these rely on a fundamental logical flaw.
The Logical Flaw Fundamental to Powell’s Election Modelling
The affidavits that analyzed the voting trends in swing states during the 2020 election presumed that past results will perfectly represent future ones.
For example, Affidavit #27 looked with slackjawed shock at surefire signs that Donald Trump only ever appealed to his dedicated base of followers, then made it seem as if this somehow proved the claim of voter fraud. In it, the affiant claims that, when compared to the results of the 2016 election, “for every one additional voter for [Trump]… [Biden] gained 4.2.”
Four years, one pandemic, and thousands of lies had been told since Donald Trump lost that popular vote, but the affiant was turning to that election as a baseline by which this one could and should be measured.
It’s almost as if Trump was deeply unpopular, and that unpopularity got irregular voters to the polls.
In another voter fraud lawsuit — the one where Texas sued Pennsylvania in the Supreme Court of the United States to try to overturn its election results — the claims of rampant fraud were supported with a statistical analysis of the voting that gave Biden “less than one in a quadrillion.”
That number comes from an affidavit by Charles J. Cicchetti, who argued that, because Trump was leading Biden in Georgia by 51% to 49% at 3am the night of the election, it was impossible for Trump to lose the state. The only way Mr. Cicchetti’s “analysis” could hold water would be if the votes counted before 3am perfectly represented those counted after 3am. In that case, it would still be 51% to 49% when it was over.
That’s not how the world works, but he sure seemed to think it was.
In fact, experts had been warning people of the “red mirage” for weeks leading up to the election, reminding people that absentee votes were more likely to be Democrat votes that were likely to be counted later, because Republican state legislatures had made it that way.
But that’s not even the only problem with this particular logical fallacy in statistics. Mr. Cicchetti chose, conveniently, 3am on election night because that was when Trump was leading in Georgia. But aside from the results at the moment, 3am is an arbitrary choice.
Why not when polls closed?
Why not after half the votes had been counted?
Why not after 100,000 votes were counted?
Why not after 1 vote was counted?
Under the statistical models and logic favored by Trump’s election fraud team, the outcome of the election could be predicted perfectly after only 1 vote was cast.
That’s why they must now think that the Dodgers’ season is already lost.