I don't buy your argument, but for a different reason than the ones presented: Trump would absolutely sacrifice some of his followers, so people dying is not the reason I don't think it was fake.

I think it was real because of how close the shot was. 150ish yards is *far.* So far that the Armed Forces immediately looked for records that this 20-year-old had done service, because that's how good the shot was. If it was staged, the bullet would have missed by much, much further. If it was staged, hitting Trump at all is just reckless.